"I mean, people have access to health care in America. After all, you just go to an emergency room.".
-G.W.Bush, 7/10/07.

(Quote Source: Official Bush White House U.S. Government Archives, Paragraph 16, here).


To: FULL SITE CONTENTS (click here).

The Site is About The Passed-in-2010 Effective-In-2014 Obama Health Insurance Reform, and the Republican Efforts to Repeal the Reform, Which, if they Succeed, Will Keep Medical-Financial-Wipeout Risk Due to Pre-Existing-Conditions Traps, Inter-State Moves, Job Changes, and Job Loss, Forever.

The site includes tables for ASSESSING YOUR OWN (BY-STATE) RISK OF MEDICAL FINANCIAL WIPEOUT / ILLNESS NON=TREATMENT
Due to Pre-Existing-Conditions Issues




-- UNDERSTANDING WHY THE HEALTH INSURANCE REFORM ON PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS WAS NEEDED (And Should Not Be Repealed) --


-- AND WHY THE REPUBLICAN ALTERNATIVES WERE INADEQUATE --


-- These Explanations Posted by Norm Spier





WHY DON'T INSURANCE COMPANIES COVER PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS, UNLESS FORCED BY REGULATION?

Say there are 3 "nice" insurance companies, with an intention of providing good, reliable health insurance. They will cover people, even if they have a pre-existing condition.

This is what will happen. The 3 nice insurance companies might have these expenses: they have to pay out $1000 a year in typical medical expenses for 95% of customers who have a recent history of very good health and therefore aren't likely to get very sick, and $100,000 a year for the 5% of people who have bad recent health and are likely to get sick. Their medical-bill expenses for the average customer are then
.95 x $1000+.05 x $100,000 = $950 + $5,000=$5,950. There are administrative costs and profit, so the nice insurance companies might charge $7200 per person to all customers.

Unfortunately, this is what will happen next: A not-so-nice insurance company will realize that it can steal away from the 3 nice companies all and only the people who have a recent history of very good health, by charging them only say $2000 a year. Since these people with recent good health only cost the insurance company $1000. a year in medical bills, thats a whopping 50% for administrative costs, sales commissions, and profits. (The process of taking away the healthy customers only is called, in the business, "cherry picking".)

Then, in a little time, all of the recent-health-history-excellent customers, since they would rather pay $1900. a year than $5,950 a year, get cherry picked away from the 3 nice insurance companies. This leaves the 3 nice insurance companies with only the people who cost $100,000 a year, so they have to charge a bit more, say $120,000 a year to each of them, to cover administrative expenses and profits, to their customers, all of whom are really sick. But of course, since very few people can afford the $120,000 a year, this would put the 3 nice insurance companies out of business. THIS DYNAMIC IS FUNDAMENTALLY WHY EVEN THE 3 "NICE" COMPANIES CAN'T STAY IN BUSINESS UNLESS THEY TOO REFUSE TO COVER PEOPLE WITH PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS. (Or unless some regulation forces all companies to cover everyone.)

Thus, we see that if insurance companies are forced to cover everyone, but not everyone is required to have coverage, certain people will not pick up health insurance until they get sick (that is freeload), and this will make insurance much too expensive for all people, including honest non-freeloaders who just want to be insured all the time. (Rates: say $14,800 a year per person, as
here in a low-living-cost area of upstate NY where exactly those conditions prevail. This is instead of what would be $6000 or $7000. unsubsidized if there were a mandate, e.g. MA. Further, the NY rates may keep rising astronomically, as a "death spiral" making it ridiculously uneconomical for anyone not already sick to hold insurance. As a detail, NY requires some months of continuous-prior-coverage in order to cover pre-existing conditions. These limit the freeloading, and without those regulations, rates for non-freeloaders would be even higher. Again, NY State is the case of " insurance companies must cover everyone at the same rate" but "no mandate on individuals to be responsible and have coverage".)

Now the above explanation of why mandating that everyone be covered is an essential component of the insurance reform, without which it breaks down, and honest people not gaming the system pay several times too much for insurance (exactly as NY state now, and why I myself left for MA which has a mandate). Despite this, Republicans and Ms. Pipes herself, are both trying to incite mass anger over the compulsion to buy insurance, and further, have launched "unconstitional compulsion" court challenges to the insurance mandate.

Now, the fact that the mandate that they are waging war on is the only reasonable way to keep the non-independently-wealthy away from the risk of medical bankruptcy is pretty easy to understand for very quantitative analytical people, but is not so easy to understand to most lawmakers (who are lawyers, political science majors, etc.)
Thus, some of the Republican lawmakers really going after the mandate aspect is excusable, kind of, in that they just don't have a grip on what's going on. But at least a few Republican policy and legislative people do grasp the mechanism and the need for a mandate, as Sally C. Pipes indicates at 17:00 to 18:00 in this video. Sally's talk, at the ideologically conservative Heritage Foundation, is the usual mix of inconsistent partial truths, expressing outrage at cutting government non-standard "Medicaid Advantage" that "takes care of our seniors", while at the same time expressing outrage at tyrannical government everywhere it suits her ends. I've noted the following critical statement (at 44:50 running for about a minute) that clearly is an attempt to deceive about how the Republican "plan" to boost the state high-risk pools could save from economic disaster the 10 million people with chronic pre-existing conditions. She says that these subsidies to the high-risk pool would only be needed until such point that "competition" kicks into play. Well, even if all 50 states would come up with well-engineered high risk pools, when perhaps 1/4 of states have such at the current time, there is no economic mechanism explanation for why insurance companies will take on a person with expensive pre-existing conditions and insure them for those conditions, unless compelled or subsidized.
It's also lots of fun to watch, in the video, many of the young interns at the Heritage Foundation, as they, in the ill-disguised manner characteristic of young people, try to curry favor with their mentors and career-makers, by trashing the Reform in the phrasing of their questions. ) br>


WHY DON'T INSURANCE COMPANIES COVER PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS, UNLESS FORCED BY REGULATION? is explained by me a little below (within the orange box on the right). Click here to get there.


WHAT IS CHERRY PICKING? is explained here.


Why the Republican idea "To Allow Individuals and Businesses to Buy Insurance Across State Lines" would WORSEN the pre-existing condition problem, and is in all likelihood based on a trick by certain insurers in the advice they are giving Republicans to allow freer predation on people. Click here to get there.


WHY IS LEAVING THE HANDLING OF PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS (Statewise High Risk Pools, Statewise Community Rating, etc.) AS IN ALL REPUBLICAN PLANS A VERY QUESTIONABLE IDEA? is explained by me a little below. Click here to get there.



DON'T INSURERS HAVE TO COVER ME, REGARDLESS OF PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS, AS LONG AS I'VE HAD FULL COMPREHENSIVE HEALTH INSURANCE CONTINUOUSLY? NO, in all but the 5 community-rated and modified community-rated states (MA,NY,NJ,ME,VT). In the special case when you are coming off of an employer-based plan, there is a trickily worded false HIPAA protection, that they have to cover you, but "can charge you whatever they want extra due to your pre-existing condition". (Heck, I'll cover you for 5 million dollars a year!.) In many states (but far from all), if you are coming off an employer plan, they will at least give you a state high-risk-pool, which costs up to $25,000 a year per person.

DID ANY OF THE REPUBLICAN ALTERNATIVE PLANS CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT PRE-EXISTING-CONDITION SCREENED SYSTEM? NO, ALL THE REPUBLICAN PLANS KEEP THE PRE-EXISTING-CONDITION SCREENED SYSTEM? ( I verified this 9/2009 and again on 2/11/10 examining the plans in the footnotes on the copy of the here="GOP solutions for America" carefully. These 8 plans are all just minor patches that will continue to leave many people uncovered and/or destined for bankruptcy, either when they make just a little more, or have a little more assets, than free Medicaid allows, or when they have a pre-existing condition. Further, many of the Republican proposals have very deceptive wording, to make it look like they're solving the pre-existing-condition problems. Details below. Click here to get there.


GROWTH OF HEALTH CARE COSTS, AND LIFE EXPECTANCY, AROUND THE WORLD Click here to get there.

Yes, indeed, long-term cost controls are inadequate in the Obama plan. They will have to be added later, during a crisis, maybe like Greece of something. Devilishly irresponsible Republicans, by shouting "rationing", "death panels", and "socialism" for no other reason than to make Mr. Obama fail, have put much of the innumerate sector of the public out of the frame of mind for sensible and needed cost controls on the whole system, including Medicare.

ANOTHER GOOD SOURCE OF SIMPLE EXPLANATIONS ABOUT THE PLAN: (graphic book form) from an MIT health economist who helped create of the Federal Law (and a person who advised Mitt Romney on his construction of the Massachusetts predecessor of the Federal law.)


"BUY INSURANCE ACROSS STATE LINES"??
This was an insidious proposal whose effects are probably above the heads of most of the Republican Congress People--I think they're mostly lawyers with no head for economic mechanisms. They are probably being advised to do by some people at the nastiest of the health insurance companies.

From a Republican's policy speech:"Let's also talk about letting families and businesses buy insurance across state lines. I and many other Republicans believe that that will provide real choice and competition to lower the cost of health insurance."

What this provision would do (unless insurance market reforms stopping pre-existing-condition-exclusion AND a strong national minimum coverage standard AND a strong national enforcement mechanism are added -- so far the combination -- being equivalent to the Democrats' "national health insurnce exchange" -- rejected by all Republican Senators) is defeat state regulations that (in some states) offer some protections to people with pre-existing conditions. By allowing people without pre-existing conditions to get insurance across state lines, it would drive the premiums for people with pre-existing conditions (who can't get insurance in those other states) way, way, up. (This effect alone would ruin insurance prospects for people with substantial pre-existing conditions in the 5 community-rated and modified community-rated states, plus a number of other states that limit what can be called a pre-existing condition in various ways.)

Further, this "across state lines" proposal would destroy the funding mechanism for many high-risk pools that already exist in many states, which is to add a charge to support the high risk pool onto the policies of people without pre-existing conditions. (To find those states, go to this
Kaiser table, and look for where the "Financed through insurer assessments" column is "Yes". I count 28 states.) That funding, for the high risk pools, would be wrecked, since people without pre-existing conditions, can avoid that charge, and get a cheaper policy without that charge, by buying a policy out of state. That's right This proposal actually makes it worse for people when they have pre-existing conditions in almost all states!!! But what it does do is help the insurance industry sell cheap, not-very-good policies to only people without pre-existing conditions (i.e. cherry pick), in states where they are currently obstructed from doing this by state law.

Not to mention that without a mandate (opposed by Republicans as "socialism"), rates are too high for people who don't freeload (and pick up coverage just when they get sick).

My assumption is that the strongest impetus within the Health Insurance Industry for this proposal is from certain of them, whose predatory business model is based on finding only very healthy people, and selling them cheaper insurance, for which premiums they pay out only maybe 65% in actual medical bills -- the company keeps the rest. These ultra-predatory companies typically are not found in the 5 community-rated states, and they often have names that suggest patriotism or goodness or some such thing, to create an image in the mind of the most credulous folks.

[Republicans basing their reform on this miserable destructive proposal is not new, and I'm not the only one to notice its horrible implications. It was part of the McCain/Palin platform. (I'll give McCain/Palin the benefit of the doubt and assume they didn't themselves understand the implications of this plan that the Insurance Industry wrote for them.) At the time, Nobel economist Paul Krugman warned us (here), as did many others. For completeness on the Krugman article and McCain plan, here is the article from Contingencies that Krugman mentions. Here also is my copy of the old McCain/Palin Campaign Health Insurance page. (It's actually kind of funny, well, tragi-comic, to see the Republicans push during the election and again now for health insurance deregulation that thinking-through would show would really mess things up. This right on the heels of when their deregulatory President had deregulation of the financial system screw up on us so badly (brink of a worldwide depression) that he even had to announce the failure publically 7 weeks before a presidential election. I assure you, the last President would have waited till after the election if he could have!) ]


Bad Republican Policy Idea Behind All Republican "Plans"--Leave it to the States to Ultimately Handle Pre-Existing Conditions: The main reason that this is terrible is that every state has enormous finanical incentives to be nasty and extremley unbrotherly to sick people and people with pre-existing conditions. That is, any state that is not nasty and unbrotherly (i.e., is decent) will have sick people from nasty states go to the decent state whenever at all possible. This is a perverse incentive on states -- they are better off if they do the wrong thing. There is also gobs of general economic inefficiency in this, as people move to states where there health insurance works out, rather than where there is work that they are productive at, and where they enjoy the state's amenities. Another reason is that often state laws, due to state size and the small number of good minds available to look at laws, are less competent than Federal laws. For example, in Connecticut,
this particular state-organized plan (which is above the Medicaid income limits and separate from it) gives reasonably priced health insurance to people if they keep their incomes low. But if they work and make one dollar over the income limits, they have to pay up to tens of thousands of dollars more for health insurance. And this from a state with 3 million people--not the smallest, and further, the capital city, Hartford, has oodles of quantitative actuaries from the Insurance Industry who could theoretically help the state get it right. (Confession: I used to live in that state. I could have chosen to never work again to make myself eligible for that plan, but I thought that would be beneath the level of my own character. I left the state instead.)



DID ANY OF THE REPUBLICAN ALTERNATIVE PLANS CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT PRE-EXISTING-CONDITION SCREENED SYSTEM? NO, ALL THE REPUBLICAN PLANS KEEP THE PRE-EXISTING-CONDITION SCREENED SYSTEM? ( I verified this 9/2009 examining the plans in the footnotes on the copy of the
here="GOP solutions for America" carefully. The page keeps changing, but on 2/11/10 their page again has 8 Republican proposals linked to at the bottom, and the same is true. These 8 plans are all just minor patches that will leave many people uncovered, either when they make just a little more, or have a little more assets, than free Medicaid allows, or when they have a pre-existing condition.

  • All the Republican proposals keep the pre-existing-condition-screened system, which is a massive waste, because of all the resource spent tracing people's pre-existing conditions, and of all the expensive statistician resource spent by insurance companies trying to find only healthy people to sell insurance to.


  • Further, people never know when they accidentally forgot to report a pre-existing condition, or had one from some obscure lab test that they didn't understand, or their doctor forgot to tell them about-- and the company may decide to cancel the policy or not pay (e.g., see this page).


  • At best, one or two of the proposals propose encouraging states to expand high-risk pools to more states (people with pre-existing conditions pay more, there will remain large gaps, up to 51 confusing, non-intercompatible state laws will apply, and you have to spend weeks and weeks researching what's going on with a goofy, complicated table like this one if you want to change states.


  • Further, in keeping 50 separate state solutions, there is a lot of inefficiency and unfair expense to states that really try to cover their citizens, as sick people move in from out of state to get health insurance. (In particular, MA and ME are particularly vulnerable this way now, to higher insurance rates and higher state taxes, as mobile sick people move in to take advantage of pre-existing-conditions-not-counted rules, and state subsidies for those above Medicaid limits but still without enough income to afford insurance.)


  • To boot, some of these Republican proposals have VERY DECEPTIVE WORDING about pre-existing conditions, trying to make the wording suggest to those who don't understand the system, are not too good with their English, or are jelly-brained, that their plans address pre-existing-conditions more than slightly.

    For example, this this Shadegg One is quite the exemplar of deception.
    It says: "PRE-EXISTING AND CHRONIC CONDITIONS COVERED AT AFFORDABLE RATES." (Baloney--no such provision. Some improvement for a few, perhaps).

    "No American should go bankrupt because they get sick."-- If wishes were fishes.

    "The Improving Health Care for All Americans Act strengthens, expands and creates new avenues for affordable health care for the sickest Americans through high-risk pools and reinsurance mechanisms. The sick and those with chronic conditions will be able to buy coverage at competitive rates. "

    --Yes, it does strengthen them and expand them a teensie-weensie bit.

    -- Competitive rates. That's an interesting word. Rates are currently competitive; rates for a person with a serious pre-existing condition might be $80,000 a year. Competitive not the answer there. An older person making say $18,000 a year can't afford competitive insurance, even without pre-existing conditions, because they have to eat and pay rent at the same time.

    (Quite clear that the people aren't running the party; the special interests are running both these Senators and the people. This is sickening.)

    In contrast, all of the Democratic Proposals being worked on (and now melded together in Congress) would no longer permit exclusion from insurance for pre-existing conditions.








  • 3/30/2010: FINAL PASSED REFORM BILLS SIGNED BY PRESIDENT--TEXT:

    NOTE: HR3590 is the Main bill, HR4872 is the Reconciliation bill, which modified HR3590, and added student loan provisions).

    The full text of the two bills, in a nice form (with hyperlinked Table of Contents, and modifications to HR3590 from HR4872 shown in HR3590), is available here.

    For certain purposes, such as searching for text, a .pdf is preferred. Here is HR3590 .pdf (click here), and Here is HR4872 .pdf (click here),

    The bills have some details in references to external laws. If you have sufficient interest in those details, you can find some of them here at the full codified US law. (In other cases, you may need a Google search to find the law. What I have found helpful when doing this is to take any Wikipedia page that comes up at Google, where a footnote on that Wikipedia page will usually link you to the text.)

    7/11/09:WONDERFUL Bill Moyers (watch, read transcripts, and informative links here), showing cases of insurance companies not paying claims to policyholders, after people get sick based on searching for pre-existing conditions in their old records (this is in the first 10 minutes). The rest of the show has an ex industry insider from the Health Insurance Industry (PR Executive) discuss the current manipulation of the public by the industry (which is working really well for them).



    For the Following Graphs, NOTE Our Relative Costs per Person are Even Higher Because We Deny Coverage to 1/6 of our Population
    All the Other Countries Cover Everyone


    Per-Capita Health Costs Around the World (2003)

    Life Expectancy and Per-Capita Health Costs Around the World (2000)




    Plot below is based on Congressional Budget Office data, taken from
    this page.

    U.S. Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security Projected Spending (% of GDP)



    Universal Healthcare Country Polling Results: here,

    Universal Health Care dates enacted--all developed countries except ours here.


    --Posted by Norm Spier . (I am actually a statistician who has made a successful career by working for the Pharmaceutical Industry. A Universal Healthcare plan threatens that industry, but I accept that. We all have to give a little and not be pigs if this country is going to work.)






    BOOK TV--It's Really Good.

    Archived free BookTV program video feeds

    Watch live (weekends) (C-SPAN 2)







    SOME CAMPAIGN DECEPTIONS (happen to be by McCain Campaign) which I am keeping around now, well after the election, as examples for us to study of how the government is getting taken away from the people by the special interests (and making us sick, broke, and otherwise miserable).

    Deception 1: McCain posted on his Website; archived here post-election. This text is near the bottom of McCain's page:

    "MYTH: Some Claim That Under John McCain's Plan, Those With Pre-Existing Conditions Would Be Denied Insurance."

    To anyone not armed to expect a deceptively worded statement, it sounds like under McCain's proposal, an insurer would not be able to turn you down for a pre-existing condition. But the McCain proposal kept the precise pre-existing-condition-screened system in place. Currently, in many states, a "high-risk-pool" is set up to cover some of the people who can't pass pre-existing condition screens. These plans can run up to $23,000. or more a year per person (as in CT), they often have ridiculous exclusions (e.g., paying at most $75,000 a year in your medical bills and with a waiting list in California, paying only half of out-of-state emergency treatment in MO), and they keep many people with pre-existing conditions ineligible. McCain keeps this precise system. (On his site, he renamed "high-risk-pools" as "guaranteed acceptance plans" to make it sound like something would change.) If McCain himself didn't intend to fool you, then it is clear he is working with deceptive marketing-types from the insurance industry who intentionlally came up with language that would fool most people. Under McCain, you still would have paid much more for insurance, and could fall through the gap entirely, if you had or got a pre-existing condition.

    McCain's so called MYTH statement would only be a myth if stretched to "those With Pre-Existing Conditions Would Be Denied the ability to get any Insurance at all". And, this would be very expensive high-risk-pool insurance (up to $23,000 a year per person), that you might not be able to afford. And further, with the current set of high risk pools, 35 states of 50+D.C. have some sort of big gap that misses some or all people. Those would have had to be ironed out in each and every state. (And further, massive funding for filling those gaps for people with pre-existing conditions would have to come from somewhere. And McCain actually melted down the limited current funding, with his "across state lines" provision.)

    Deception 2:

    In the first presidential debate, and then the first vice-presidential debate, we have a big misportrayal of the Obama plan as a government takeover. For example, in the VP debate, Palin said that Obama’s plan would be "universal government run" health care and that health care would be "taken over by the feds." However, as factcheck.org indicates, that's not the case at all. Obama’s plan would not replace or remove private insurance, or require people to enroll in a public plan.

    My favorite goofy little deception by McCain (nothing to do with insurance-- but it's cute) -- the "3 million dollar overhead projector for a planetarium" Obama earmark:

    As I guessed during the debate, and other science people may have guessed, that turns out to be a replacement of a 40-year old projector of the night sky at the major Chicago planetarium, the Adler. (factcheck.org on Adler Planetarium projector). In my book, over the next 40 years, about two million kids, young adults, and some adults would have learned a lot of science from it, had the earmark been approved. (I learned a lot, from the one at the Hayden in NYC. And I now have a Ph.D. in science!)


    Factcheck.org on both candidates on Presidential debate # 3. [Note: factcheck.org isn't perfect, but it's stilll pretty good. Notably, I find they are good with exact facts, but sometimes miss conspicous aspects when economic or other analysis is involved.]






    Silly People Looking for a Too-Good-To-Be-True Bargain Get Just What They Deserve

    Ah, the silly citizens. When they need non-group health insurance, and have been completely healthy, they buy this cheap health insurance that is cheap based on keeping all the unhealthy people away. It's really cheap, maybe $900. a year. It's a wasteful product, being that it only pays out 55%-75% in claims of the premiums paid in. But they've got really cheap rates. They see "Harry and Louise" (ad 2), and they feel really good about their really cheap insurance. [More recently (11/16/08), in this Marketwatch article, note paragraphs 7-10, where low average rates on individual insurance, achieved by basically keeping the chronically very sick without policies, are touted by a very interested party from a corporation that sells individual policies. Note also, in earlier paragraphs in the same article, a health insurance industry spokesperson posturing to bring "change"--some form of limited change--an illusion of "change" if they can get away with it this time. He indeed knows you can fool most of the people most of the time.]

    But then, when those silly people do get sick (which is what they had insurance for), they wind up with much higher rates, or no insurance at all

    So, collectively, we are morons looking for a bargain by getting insurance that keeps away unhealthy people. And when we get sick, that insurance, that keeps away sick people, says "good luck, buddy", and we get what we deserve.



    Curious, isn't it, that individual insurers never advertise their "payout rates". (This is the percentage paid out in claims for every premium dollar paid in.) Not only don't they advertise, but they won't even tell me when I ask lately, and often pretend never to have heard of such a term. You would think that it is a fundamental number that the consumer needs to know, like pixels in a digital camera, or fuel-burning efficiency in a furnace, both of which are always prominent when you look to buy it. But with health insurers, the product is so complicated that the company selling you insurance has an information advantage that the consumer isn't knowledgeable enough to break. And if they did give you a number, which would usually be in the 65% to 75% zone, and you compared to employer plan numbers, around 90%, or government Medicare efficiency (98%), you'd really know you were buying a wasteful, inefficient product.



    10/24/08: Plans for government aid to Insurance Companies (besides AIG) in the works Due to Financial Crisis!(According to several guests on PBS Lehrer NewsHour).
    Aid to more Insurance Companies??? The very same entities that won't insure people with pre-existing conditions in the U.S., and lobby for keeping able to keep not insuring them, when no other industrialized country allows the non-insurance of people due to pre-existing conditions?

    The Insurance Companies NOW HAVE A PRE-EXISTING CONDITION (near bankruptcy), AND WANT US TO INSURE THEM? The Insurance Companies want help from us???

    IF THERE IS TO BE ANY JUSTIICE AT ALL, IN LIGHT OF THIS, UNIVERSAL-COVERAGE-TYPE PRE-EXISTING CONDITION REFORM MUST BE PASSED WITHIN 90 DAYS OF A NEW PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS!





    WHAT IS OUR CURRENT SYSTEM, BY THE WAY?

    People under 65:

    Currently, people with very low incomes and assets (often assets < $2000 though sometimes a car or something else may be allowed) get free medical care (Medicaid). (NOTE: In a few states, even these very poor people will not be eligible for Medicaid if they do not have dependent children.) The quality varies based on the state--in many states, they really try to not stigmatize the people getting Medicaid, and feel like they just have a decent HMO. The trick for these people is that they're really in what economists call a poverty trap. If they work hard, they'll lose their free health insurance, and be much worse off and possibly dead. In the statistics, by the way, these people all count as insured -- they are not among the 46 million (almost 1/6 of the country) counted as uninsured.

    People above the very low Medicaid limits, but without enough money to pay for whatever insurance is available, when their job doesn't provide insurance, or when they are between jobs, are most of the uninsured. These people can be classified as "working poor" or "working class income" if they have lower incomes, and can't afford health insurance, and don't get it from their job. Besides working-class-level salaries, there are actually many higher-income/asset middle class people in this group. This is because, in most U.S. states, insurance can be denied due to pre-existing conditions. Further, in many states, a special "high-risk-pool" is set up by the state to cover them, but rates can hit $24,000 a year per person, and there are gaps. Also, many states have no high risk pool, and no alternate mechanism, or a humongous-gap alternate mechanism. (I took it upon to study the pre-existing condition wipeout risk to the hard-saving relatively-high-income middle class people here in my by-state dangers table. There is a wipeout risk in 23 states if you never move between states, and 36 if you do try to move. Few people know this.)

    Most insurance currently is employer-based insurance. Typically, smaller employers buy group insurance from an insurance company. The rates they pay depend on the state. In most states, nowadays for employers buying the insurance have some form of community rating or modified community rating, where they don't pay too much more for sicker employees. (This is in contrast to what happens to people in those same states when they are sick--individual policies in most of these same states that are community-rated for the employer are not community rated for the individual. This is one reason many experts are concerned about moving away from employer-based insurance without fixing the individual insurance regulations first.) At any rate, there can still be pre-existing-conditions coverage problems for employees of employers who have purchased group insurance. I am not an expert in this area, but you need to check the state specifics if this affects you.

    For employer-based insurance for large employers, the employer is usually self-insured, which means that they set up an insurance plan and just pay the cost of the medical bills that roll in themselves. (They often have an insurance company administer it, but they pay them a fee and the medical bills. The insurance company doesn't assume the medical risk.) Note that these large employer plans are usually exempt from state regulations by a Federal ERISA law. I am not an expert in this area, but I have been told there are few or no regulations of the Health insurance under ERISA.

    One thing I would like to point out about employer based plans is that, though Obama and the Democrats want to keep that system now, and that's OK, in the further future we might want to get rid of it. The reason is that there is a kind of manipulation or hanky-panky with freeloading on society, where employers can higher just young or healthy people, and reduce there medical costs. This keeps older and less healthy people both uninsured and unemployed. (Want an example of where this was at least contemplated--See The Walmart Memo. And I'm really not blaming Walmart -- there's a real economic force to be dealt with, and we have to engineer our system well.) Ironically, the McCain plan would have acted to de-employerize health insurance, which in itself is good, but because the plan messed up all protections for pre-existing conditions, and put people into the inefficient (65%-75% payout rate) individual system, it would have actually made things much, much, worse, as I posted here about a month before the election when I found out the exact details of his plan.

    [Incidentally (11/18/08), with the three American auto makers asking for a government bailout to stave off bankruptcy, many are pointing out that Toyota and other Japanese carmakers when manufacturing in the U.S. have lower costs than U.S. automakers manufacturing in the U.S. Though there probably are other factors, such as too many car models and dealerships for the US companies, I'll bet some of Toyota's reduced cost is that being newer in manufacturing in the U.S., they have younger employees. Think about this, and see what a mess self-insured employerized insurance can make of the economy!]

    Also, though I think Obama will keep the tax-favorable treatment of employer-based insurance, as we make things more optimal in the future, we may want to give equal deductions whether insurance is individual or employer. That is, we want to break the tie of health insurance (and in fact pension, etc.) to employers, since when we don't have continuous long term employment with one employer, all those things get messed up. (We have such a stupid way of doing things! It's stupider now that young people are expected to go between 10 jobs, not 1 job, per lifetime.) Now, there would be problems dis-employer-connecting in a non-mandated system (particularly, freeloading by individual people not replacing lost employer-provided insurance). But somes of the issues of de-employerization are false: the economics-versed will realize that "employer-pays" vs. "I pay" vs. "we split the cost" is a false belief (under everyone rational, no psychological effects, and no-sticky-entanglement agent assumptions at least.)

    Oh, yes. For completeness let me add that people with over $10,000,000 in assets often don't have or need insurance. They just pay cash.

    And at the risk of sounding facetious, people in prison get free medical treatment, whether they have a pre-existing condition or not.


    Current System, for People 65 and Up:

    Medicare, a program which has been in place since the mid 1960s, insures people for a modest fee. (Funding from a payroll tax.) There is no pre-existing conditions exclusion. The standard version of the program has a notoriously high efficiency measured by "payout ratio" of around 98%. There are also certain controversial private alternatives, which cost the Federal government something like $1200. more a year per person, due to the administrative inefficiency and cost of marketing the private alternatives. (Republicans generally support these alternative plans, indicating that they believe that though not the case now, ultimately the private plans will manage to squeeze costs down. At the moment, in my area of upstate New York, it looks like much of that $1200. is going into the ads I see on TV for the various private Medicare plans, and the sales people. Several different companies offer on TV to send a sales person (the ads say "health insurance advisor") out to the older people.)

    Do note that Medicare falls short in some areas, so people with assets to lose often purchase supplemental plans. I do not myself know about the problems people with pre-existing conditions have with supplemental plans. I do believe that at least in certain states, if you purchase a supplemental plan when you first hit 65 and start Medicare, you are O.K.

    Since so much of the medical system is Medicare (older people use a lot of care), you would think no one would sensibly object to the Obama plan, which has less of a government roll than Medicare. But, the explanation is that the current system for under 65 year old people is where the profit lies for many, many insurance companies. That is, those 65% to 75% payout ratios on individual policies mean there is 25% to 35% of premium left to be spread around to insurance agents, insurance company employees, and profit.

    Current Sytstem and Hidden Cost Shifting--Hidden Cost Shifting Now Worsening Due to Economic Meltdown

    The current system shifts the cost of medical care of those without insurance, and with lesser insurance, to the rest of us in a dishonest, hidden way. (An honest way would be to pay in an explicit way where the costs are calculated and announced-- e.g., the government budget with taxes. A dishonest way is just to have it all added to our medical and insurance bills, with nobody knowing what the amount really is. Hospitals and doctors rarely dare calculate the number, because if they have to tell you a third of your bill is really for other people, you might not pay.)

    The cost shifting is from the uninsured, who are required to be stabilized by law in a hospital whether or not they will be able to pay. Also, it occurs for hospital and doctor "charity" care. It occurs commonly for Medicaid -- when the state governments set doctor and hospital reimbursement rates too low. (And for example, in New York State, they've had a budget emergency due to the meltdown, and announced (11/12/08) a plan to cut the Medicaid payment amounts. So the cost will get shifted to all not-on-Medicaid state residents.) There is also cost-shifting in the patchwork of state government programs designed to help some of the uninsured, with a little too much income for Medicaid, get medical care. Those usually involve some government money, and also often involve an unrealistically low payment rate to doctors and hospitals (often with a law requiring that the doctors and hospitals accept that unrealistically low payment). This is yet more cost shifting, and of course this should get worse as state governments go into budget troubles.

    YOUNGER PEOPLE NOTE:

    You may be too young to know that in the early Bill Clinton Presidency years, around 1993, we were on the verge of getting universal healthcare in place when the special interests came in, ran these "Harry and Louise" ads to scare the people away from it. And it worked. (Thus, unlike the current financial meltdown, you can't really blame the government leaders--some of them were alert --you can blame the special interests, and the ability of some of the people to be mislead.)

    Since you, young people, can expect to have not one steady job, but rather 10 shorter-term jobs, over your lifetime, lets hope your parents and grandparents will let you have reliable and steady health care.


    Video: Economic Journalist Peter Gosselin and others discuss his book High Wire, about the increased risk of sudden financial catastrophes to families in America due to health insurance and other reasons.


    Frontline with Full Video on 5 Country's Systems

    Documentary Showing how well the current system is working for the working poor . The people followed in this documentary are all in the lower-middle and working-poor class. I find it a flaw that they missed the more well to do middle class, which is also at high risk. Though the better-off portion of the middle class has a lower likelihood of having no care or far inferior care most of the time than the working poor, the system still leaves no care and inferior care all too likely. And further, it gets combined with the likelihood of losing say $600,000 worth of savings all at once. (The working poor simply don't have that much in assets to lose.)



    American Prospect Special Report on Universal Health Care--May, 2008 . The following articles strike me as particularly lucid: Ezra Klein on two of the major proposals and their variants, Marcia Angell on the Massachusetts reform, and Anthony Wright on the California attempt.

    Cross-Insurer Database of Pre-Existing Conditions:
    Some people are not aware of it, and think they might give a try at just not putting down a pre-existing conditions. The health insurance industry maintains a large cross-insurer database of pre-existing conditions. Note below, my own policy's privacy statement indicates they can do that, as below, circled. ("Medical underwriting" is precisely pre-existing-condition-screening. The industry prefers that term, because it sounds more innocent, and most people don't know what it is.)




    WHY IS HEALTH INSURANCE DIFFERENT FROM OTHER INSURANCE LIKE FIRE AND AUTO?,
    (that don't need pre-existing condition regulation or subsidies).

    This is a perceptive question with a compelling answer.

    A)Pre-Existing Condition Regulations are Needed because the larger part of the cost of a medical event (heart attack, coming down with cancer, etc.) is not the immediate cost of treatment, but rather the future cost of treatment due to conditions which will pre-existing after the event. (Compare: If your house burns, it gets rebuilt and the insurer pays for that, but you can still get insurance on the new house because it is not more likely to burn again. Auto is actually similar -- yes, there is a detail that after an accident the insurer may presume you are a less good driver and raise your rate even 50% for a few years, but this is nothing like the event of a heart attack or cancer, where if you lose your current insurance, or you need to change insurers because your insurance pool gets cherry picked (see box below), your unregulated insurance premium (i.e. expected medical cost) may rise to 10 or 30 times what is was.

    Another way of looking at the paragraph above is that any truly rational consumer (with assets to lose) will only buy health insurance that covers, for a medical event, not only the cost of treatment now, but the elevated expected cost of future treatment which becomes apparent due to the current medical event. Of course, one reason no individual or job insurance offers this is that only about 2% of people are economics-quantitative analytical enough to see this even when pointed out, and the other 98% are oblivious to this. (Thus, for the health insurance product, consumers are not informed consumers -- rather they are terribly, terribly ignorant consumers for this product.)

    Another reason the rational-consumer insurance is unavailable is that such truly sound insurance is impossible to offer, based on the unpredictability of future medical advances and costs. Thus, the only available solution for a rational consumer would be to join a non-revocable agreement to pool medical costs with a large number of other individuals. Well, if you make that large group of individuals everyone, this is one form of universal care.

    B)Subsidies are Needed (even after regulation for pre-existing conditions) because many people simply can't earn enough to pay for the average cost of treating disease. This has much to do with the free-market spirit of U.S. regulations, where those with limited labor market power to garner a high wage (which arises largely because there is not a shortage of people doing the particular work that they do in the absence of unions of much higher minimum wages).

    C)Regulation Reducing Redundancy and Increasing Administrative Efficiency are not essential, but desirable, because of the extreme waste, partly in the insurance-marketing area. For example, because of so many insurers existing with all kinds of different rules, perhaps 20%-25% of doctor and hospital costs are due to assistants dealing with all the forms and different pre-approval rules for the different insurers. Further, on non-employer insurance, beyond that administrative loss on all health insurance, the insurance company only typically pays out 60%-72% in bills of the premium dollars it takes in. (I actually saw 55% for one individual insurance policy one time.) Thus, we spend 16% of GNP on medical care whereas the other industrialized countries spend 6%-11% or GNP, and many have longer life expectancies than us.






    TWO GENERAL SOURCES OF SOME BY-STATE AND CROSS-STATE INFORMATION:

    is the Georgetown University All-States Health Insurance Site.



    There is, for individual insurance, a by-state comparison table on the site: Georgetown By-State Table)


    THERE IS EVEN BETTER STATE-COMPARISION INFORMATION (ABOUT INDIVIDUAL AND STATE SMALL GROUP RULES) AT:

    kaiser statehealthfacts.org "Managed Care and Health Insurance" subpage.,









    Who am I? I am Norm Spier, a mathematical statistician who has spent most of his life in Metro NYC, Upstate New York, and Connecticut. Recently (3/2010), I moved from Vestal, in Upstate New York, to the Five Colleges area of Massachusetts.



    If you have any comments, or want to point out an error or oversight, please email me at
    norm@nastechservices.com

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    MISCELLANEOUS OTHER SITES OF MINE REFLECTING OTHER INTERESTS

    Social Science Books for Science People

    Musical Software 1

    Musical Software 2

    Musical Spectrograms


    Sites not mine of Interest:

    Jewish Voice for Peace (Jewish Organization offering contrasting view to the "Israel Lobby", opposes West Bank Settlements, members include myself.)

    Comment by Charles Freeman, Obama Intelligence appointee, on his withdrawal due to Israel Lobby pressure.




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    Important Legal Disclaimer: I am trying to put useful, helpful information on this page. However, I can not be responsible for any errors above. Therefore, please check with the appropriate state insurance departments, and/or seek legal advice, as appropriate, before relying on the information above.

    Also, please note the above information is copyright 2000-2012 by Norman A. Spier.



    This page contains (above) information on:

    Obama pre-existing conditions

    Obama Health Plan

    Baucus Health Plan

    pre-existing conditions obama

    Fixing pre-existing conditions

    Pre-existing conditions and health insurance